Building futures in logistics
Commercial audits for buyers. Exit readiness for sellers. Built by people who have run forwarders, shipping lines and agent networks.
Why now
The generation that built the independent forwarding industry is reaching retirement, and family succession is now the exception. At the same time, strategic buyers and private equity are back in the market, with sharper filters than before.
109,000
SMEs in Germany alone look for a successor every year
66.5
Average age of owners planning a hand-over by the end of 2026
½
Takeovers run at only half the number of owners planning to hand over
After DSV–Schenker, mid-size and top-20 forwarders want to catch up, and private equity is building platforms through bolt-on acquisitions.
Quality of earnings and downside protection drive pricing. Earn-outs and rollovers put the commercial engine of a forwarder under the microscope.
Figures: KfW Nachfolge-Monitoring Mittelstand, January 2026 (all sectors).
The blind spot
A forwarder has few hard assets. Its value sits in relationships with customers, overseas partners, carriers and a handful of key people. Standard due diligence is not built to test them.
Accountants
Are the historic numbers right?
Rarely asks whether the gross profit survives the founder leaving.
Law firms
Are contracts and liabilities sound?
Rarely sees that key agent and customer ties are handshakes, not contracts.
ShapeForward
Will this revenue still be here in 24 months, and who really controls it?
Carried out by practitioners from forwarding, carrier sales and agent networks.
For buyers · The Commercial Audit
For trade buyers, private equity platforms and family offices evaluating a forwarder or NVOCC. Data-room review, structured management interviews, selected customer and partner calls, and benchmarks from comparable businesses.
Who holds the top customer and agent relationships? What walks out with the founder?
Share of gross profit from the top 5 and top 10 accounts, their terms and churn history.
Self-sold freight versus nominated cargo routed by overseas partners.
Reliance on a few agents or one network, reciprocity balance and change-of-control risk.
Do key staff stay for the company or for the owner? In markets such as India or China, it is often the owner.
Gross profit per shipment by lane, contract versus spot, and windfall years stripped out.
What you get: a red-flag report and dependency score within three to four weeks, ready to feed into price, earn-out and retention terms.
For sellers · Exit Readiness
Most owners start preparing six months before they want out. That is too late to reduce founder dependency, and every dependency left in place is a reason for the buyer to move value into an earn-out.
The same audit, from the seller's chair, with an honest view of value.
Move key accounts and agents to the second line. Put handshakes on paper. Reduce concentration.
KPIs by lane and customer, normalised earnings and a clean data room.
The right buyers, the right timing, the owner's hand-over role and a fair earn-out design.
Start here
Sellability Check. A two-week review and workshop for owners thinking about the next five years. You leave with a dependency score and a clear list of what to fix first. Transaction execution is handled together with trusted M&A boutiques and legal advisers.
Who we are
ShapeForward is an M&A focused initiative of Fact Factory GmbH in Switzerland and Air Cargo Plus Ltd. in Hong Kong, in collaboration with their global consulting partners.
Contact
A first conversation is confidential and without obligation. Tell us briefly about the business and your timeline.